Winter 2026–27 Heating Costs: What to Expect
Federal forecasts put this winter's heating bills higher again. Below is what the numbers actually say, where they are most and least reliable, and the handful of changes that measurably reduce a bill.
The headline figures
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects households heating with electricity to spend around $1,133 between November and March — roughly 4% more than last winter. Electricity itself is forecast about 5% dearer per kilowatt-hour.
That national average hides an enormous regional spread:
| Region | Electricity price | Nov–Mar total |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 24¢+/kWh | $1,519 |
| US average | 18.3¢/kWh | $1,133 |
| South | 14.7–15.5¢/kWh | $1,031 |
A household in the Northeast pays roughly $488 more than one in the South for the same job. That gap is larger than almost any efficiency upgrade will save you — which is worth remembering before spending money chasing savings.
Why prices are rising
Two drivers, and only one gets discussed:
Natural gas. Gas sets the marginal price of electricity across most of the US grid, so gas prices move power prices even for households with no gas connection. EIA forecasts around $4.00/MMBtu for 2026, pushed up by LNG exports against roughly flat production. Wholesale power is forecast near $51/MWh, about 8.5% above 2025.
Weather. A colder forecast raises consumption, and consumption matters more than price for most bills. A mild winter at high prices can cost less than a cold winter at low ones.
Read forecasts with appropriate scepticism. The price component is reasonably solid — fuel contracts and tariffs are largely set. The weather component is a seasonal outlook, and those are routinely wrong. Treat the direction as informative and the exact dollar figure as a rough guide.
What it means by fuel
Percentage rises are quoted constantly; what matters is the base they apply to. Cost per million BTU of delivered heat, at current typical prices:
| Fuel | $/MMBTU | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas (95% furnace) | ~$16 | Up, but still cheapest |
| Heat pump (HSPF 9.5) | ~$19 | Up with electricity |
| Propane | ~$34 | Up sharply |
| Heating oil | ~$35 | Up sharply |
| Electric resistance | ~$54 | Up with electricity |
A 5% rise on electric resistance heat costs a household far more in absolute terms than a 5% rise on gas, because the base is more than three times higher. Households already paying the most are hit hardest by identical percentage increases.
Work out your own position with the heating fuel comparison — it uses your local prices rather than national averages.
The heat pump question this winter
Rising electricity prices change the heat pump calculation, and not in the direction most coverage suggests.
At 18.3¢/kWh against gas at $1.55/therm, a mid-efficiency heat pump (HSPF 9.5) now costs roughly $1,158 a season against $979 for a 95% gas furnace. Gas is currently cheaper, and the gap has widened as electricity outpaced gas.
The break-even sits near 15.5¢/kWh. Below that, the heat pump wins; above it, gas does. Most of the US is now above that line.
This contradicts a lot of current advice. Heat pumps remain the right answer against propane, oil or electric resistance heat — often halving those bills. But against modern natural gas at today's rates, the running-cost case is weak in much of the country. Check your own numbers with the heat pump vs furnace calculator before committing several thousand dollars.
What actually reduces the bill
In rough order of return per dollar and hour spent:
- Turn the thermostat down. Each degree is worth roughly 2–3% of heating cost. Three degrees is 6–9%, immediately, for nothing.
- Stop heating empty rooms and empty hours. A setback schedule while out and asleep typically saves 5–15%. The old claim that reheating costs more than maintaining temperature is false — heat loss scales with the indoor-outdoor difference, so a cooler house loses less.
- Air-seal before insulating. Draughts around windows, doors, loft hatches and service penetrations often matter more than insulation depth, and cost a fraction as much.
- Service the heating system. A dirty filter or an unserviced burner quietly adds 5–10%.
- Check for a tariff you should be on. Time-of-use or budget billing will not reduce consumption, but they can reduce cost or smooth it.
Notably absent: replacing equipment. A new furnace or heat pump is a large capital decision that rarely repays inside one winter. Do the cheap things first, then decide with a full season of data.
If you are struggling
Heating is a health issue, not only a financial one. The federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) helps eligible households with heating bills, and most utilities run hardship funds and offer payment plans that prevent disconnection. Contact your utility before falling behind — options are far wider before arrears build than after.
Sources and honesty about them
Figures are from the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and Electricity Monthly Update, current as of September 2026. Our own default rate was updated to 18.3¢/kWh on 6 September 2026 — see the methodology page for every assumption and its source.
Forecasts are forecasts. The price side is reasonably firm; the weather side is not. If this winter is mild, bills will land below these numbers, and the reverse if it is severe.